Parameter sensitivity study and water property influence: An evaluation of the determining factors on oil drifting effect

AN EVALUATION OF THE DETERMINING FACTORS ON OIL DRIFTING EFFECT

Abstract

The Eastern Mediterranean Sea is a complex location for oil spill trajectory prediction, and accurate results are necessary for emergency response plans. Furthermore, the heavy traffic of the oil shipping industry is associated with an elevated risk of an oil spill. In this work, we have set up a model in MOHID using the Eastern Mediterranean Sea as a reference, setting a simulated oil spill accident at a random location, that is, however, related to ordinary ship trajectories. We have developed a control simulation, varying parameters (wind, API, oil, and water temperature and salinity) to observe how these parameters influence the output and assess the sensitivity of the model. We have found a strong correlation between the wind and the covered area, temperature, and salinity. We have concluded that the wind, API, and water properties were determining factors in these models, with the wind being the strongest influence on the oil drifting effect.