Characteristics and Evolution of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil: Mathematical Modeling and Simulation

Carlos Augusto Cardoso Passos; Estéfano Aparecido Vieira; José André Lourenço; Jefferson Oliveira do Nascimento

Carlos Augusto Cardoso Passos Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES) http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9323-8485
Estéfano Aparecido Vieira Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo
José André Lourenço Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES)
Jefferson Oliveira do Nascimento Programa de Modelagem Computacional - CIMATEC, Salvador/BA http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9323-8485

Abstract

The pandemic caused by the coronavirus of severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), represents a threat of great magnitude not faced in this century. In Brazil, the outbreak triggered many cases of people infected with COVID-19. Analyzing the data of infection cases and their mathematical interpretation are essential for supporting and guiding governmental measures to suppress and mitigate the impact of COVID-19. This means that estimates with mathematical models to assess the development potential of sustained human–human transmission are needed. Since the disease has its own biological characteristics, the models need to be adapted to the variability of the regions characteristics and the decision-making by both the government and the population, in order to be able to deal with real situations. Thus, we analyzed the official data of COVID-19 in Brazil and used the Johnson–Mehl–Avrami–Kolmogorov (JMAK) equation to predict the evolution of the disease. The model indicates that a nucleation rate is of fourth-order, which indicates that Brazilians are crowding with no respect to measures of social distance and disease prevention.

Author Biographies

Carlos Augusto Cardoso Passos, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES)

He was a Research Productivity Scholarship at the Espírito Santo Research Foundation - FAPES (2013 to 2016). Graduated in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (1998), Master's in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (2001) and Ph.D. in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (2007). He is currently Associate Professor II at the Federal University of Espírito Santo. He also did postdoctoral work at Universidade Federal Fluminense (2008). Has experience in Physics, with an emphasis on superconducting ceramics, acting on the following subjects: high-Tc, Hg,Re-1223 ceramics, electrical resistivity, thermal fluctuations, critical current, external and hydrostatic pressure, X-ray diffraction, absorption of X-rays. Acts on subjects of Teaching Physics.

Estéfano Aparecido Vieira, Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo

From 2015 to 2021, he served as Planning and Business Director at the Vitória Innovation Hub - IFES with accreditation by EMBRAPII in the area of Metallurgy and Materials. Graduated in Metallurgical Engineering from the Federal University of Ouro Preto (1997) - UFOP, Master in Metallurgical and Materials Engineering from the University of São Paulo (2000) - USP and PhD in Materials Science and Engineering from the Federal University of São Carlos - DEMa ( 2004) - UFSCar. He is a research professor at the Postgraduate Program in Metallurgical and Materials Engineering at the Federal Institute of Espírito Santo-PROPEMM-IFES. Specialist in Innovation Management from Steinbeis University (2018) - STEINBEIS. He has management experience and works mainly in the following areas: Control of inclusions in steel solidification processes; Thermomechanical treatments of steels and other alloys; Alternative processes for the manufacture of metallic iron; Solidification and Thixoforming of aluminum alloys.

José André Lourenço, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES)

Associate Professor I of the Department of Natural Sciences (DCN) at the Federal University of Espírito Santo. He has a degree in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (2003), a Master's in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (2005), a Ph.D. in Physics from the Federal University of Espírito Santo (2009). He has experience in Quantum Field Theory, working mainly on the following topic: Constructive Aspects of Quantum Field Theory.

Jefferson Oliveira do Nascimento, Programa de Modelagem Computacional - CIMATEC, Salvador/BA

Jefferson Nascimento completed a Post-Doctorate in Complex Systems (with research in Epidemiological Scenarios - whose focus was the spread of the Coronavirus in Brazil) at CIMATEC, in Salvador / BA. PhD in Computational Modeling and Industrial Technology, in the line of research of Complex Systems, also by CIMATEC. Master in Exact Sciences (PPGECE / Rio Grande do Sul), where he developed research in Physics (Computational Modeling, Computational Simulation and Cognitive Psychology). Post-graduated in Physics Teaching, from the Federal University of Pará (2006) and also in Systems Development Using Free Software, from the University of the Amazon. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Physics from the Federal University of Pará (2005). He is currently a researcher in the field of Complex Systems, Graph Theory, Network Theory, Epidemiological Scenarios and Physics Teaching. He is an ad-hoc Referee (referee) of SBF (Brazilian Physics Society) in the area of research in Physics Teaching, at the Scientific Meeting of Applied Physics at UFES (Federal University of Espírito Santo); and the Revista de Periódicos Científicos Cereus. He served as a Referee at CIECITEC 2020-V International Congress of Scientific and Technological Education-International Seminar of Educational Advisers-II National Congress of Works in Education at The Integrated Regional University of Upper Uruguay and Missions (URI). He belongs to the Nucleus of Applied Research and Innovation (NPAI) of the State University of Bahia (UNEB) and of Transport Phenomena (Superconductivity) and Epidemiology of the Federal University of Espírito Santo (UFES). He is a professor of Applied Physics and Mathematics at the Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM).