Economic optimization with risk analysis in agricultural production of a family farm in of west of Paraná

Abstract

Agricultural producers, seeking to meet market expectations, direct their production to a few agricultural crops. Although this strategy appears to be advantageous in terms of better remuneration for higher quality production, it forces producers to allocate all available resources in a single investment, putting their financial capacity or even family subsistence at risk in the event of a bankruptcy. of vintages. For this reason, an effort was made to adapt the Absolute Deviation Minimization Model (MOTAD) to the conditions of family producers in the region through information on the economic history of agricultural activities, the climate of the region under study and the economic and operational situation of the producers. Western Paraná. From the data collection, four different production scenarios were proposed, dissimilar to each other in relation to the number of cultures and the necessary cultural treatments, obtaining in a first analysis, the combination of activities that maximizes the financial return, without considering the associated risk. Subsequently, from the application of the adapted MOTAD, eleven production plans were created for each of the proposed scenarios, obtaining, for each level of expected income, the optimal combination that minimizes risks. From the results, it is highlighted that the scenario that includes the cultivation of vegetables, tubers and fruit trees presented profitability values up to 539% of the currently obtained in the rural property, with proportionally lower associated risk and return on investment of 198%.